Marginal Wins

There is a statistic called "Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins" which determines how much teams pay for each of their wins. The formula for any team is

(total payroll - (28 x (league minimum payroll)))/((win percentage - 0.300)*162)

The numerator is the "marginal payroll" -- the payroll amount above the absolute minimum payroll, the cost of a team filled entirely with AAA replacement players, "pure substitutes" without any particular elan.

The denominator is "marginal wins" -- the number of wins above a .300 winning percentage. The big assumption is that a team filled entirely with average AAA players would have a win percentage of about .300, or about 48 wins.

For any season...or for any period of time...you can grade teams based on a) how many wins they had, and b) what the marginal cost/marginal win was.

If a team has a high win percentage and a low MW/MC ratio, it is an efficient team. It spends its money wisely.
If a team has a high win percentage and a high MW/MC ratio, it has spent its way to the top.
If a team has a low win percentage and a low MW/MC ratio, it is not spending enough to be competitive.
If a team has a low win percentage and a high MW/MC ratio, it is a poorly run team.

I went ahead and calculated those ratios for all the 2007 teams. Teams in the top ten in any ranking -- wins or MW/MC -- were given a "high" designation; teams in the bottom ten were given a "low" designation.

The 2007 results:

Efficient teams: Indians, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres, Phillies.
Not spending enough: Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, Devil Rays.
Spent their way to the top: Red Sox, Yankees
Poorly run teams: Astros, White Sox, Giants, Royals, Orioles

The funny thing is that the list sort of matches up with most people's perceptions. There are a lot of people who believe the Marlins, Pirates, and Devil Rays need to spend their way to the top. There have been years of complaints that the Yanks and Red Sox just open their pocketbooks to buy championships. The White Sox have taken the hit for questionable acquisitions and the Orioles haven't been the image of a well-run team for years.

This stat might be of use for people who are playing in on-line leagues, at least in that it might give a sign as to who is tanking.

(P. S. Sorry I haven't posted in a week. Three words: in. laws. visting.